Date: Thursday, May 2, 2002
Time: 10:09 a.m.
WE ARE NOW POSTING BULLETINS ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS
AS CONDITIONS CHANGE SO YOU MAY NOT SEE A NEW BULLETIN
EVERY DAY. WE ARE THROUGH FORECASTING FOR HUNTINGTON
RAVINE FOR THE SEASON. YOU WILL NEED DO YOUR OWN
STABILITY ASSESSMENT WHEN ENTERING THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A DANGER OF FALLING ICE FOR THE REST OF
THE SPRING.
TUCKERMAN RAVINE HAS CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER.
Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered
avalanches are probable. Be increasingly cautious
in steeper terrain and be prepared for
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WARNING
ICE FALL DANGER
MASSIVE BLOCKS OF ICE THE
SIZE OF AUTOMOBILES
TRAVEL AT HIGH SPEEDS,
HIT ROCKS, AND SEND DEADLY
SHRAPNEL IN ALL DIRECTIONS
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BE ALERT - BE AWARE
BE ICE SMART
WHITE MOUNTAIN National Forest |
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an increasing
avalanche danger today. Variable conditions will
be found in the Ravine.
The summit received 4 inches (10 cm) of snow in
the past 24 hours from 6am to 6am with only an inch
(2.5 cm) here at Hermit Lake. The models are expecting
a few more inches today possibly changing to sleet,
freezing rain, and perhaps rain at lower elevations.
Snow overnight into this morning has pushed the
danger from Moderate to Considerable. But if we
do receive a few inches today with increasing winds
followed by rain be ready for the rating to go to
High. Rain on top of an already unstable snowpack
can make for very unstable conditions potentially
triggering a natural avalanche cycle. On the other
hand if we receive a small amount of freezing rain
or sleet, but not quite enough for wide spread natural
activity we may see a icy glaze form over the existing
snow. Precipatation is expected to change back to
snow after the freezing rain/rain event and may
possibly become loaded on top of new icy surface.
This will be followed by increasing NW winds which
the models predict to go over 100 mph tomorrow.
THERE ARE MANY POTENTIAL REASONS FOR AVALANCHE
ACTIVITY ALL OF WHICH POINT TO AN INCREASING AVALANCHE
DANGER. ALTHOUGH IT IS ALMOST MAY, PAY ATTENTION
FOR AVALANCHE POTENTIAL IN YOUR MOUNTAIN TRAVELS.
THIS INCLUDES MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA
LIKE THE SNOW FIELD TRAVERSES ON THE LION HEAD SUMMER
TRAIL. WE COULD HAVE A TOUCHY SITUATION HEADING
INTO WHAT IS PREDICTED AS A DECENT WEEKEND WEATHER
WISE. WHEN THE WEATHER IS GOOD, THE CROWDS WILL
COME. REALIZE WE MAY VERY WELL BE IN A FULL WINTER
AVALANCHE SCENARIO. REMEMBER WHEN SOMEONE HEADS
UP A SLOPE IT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S SAFE. IT MAY JUST
MEAN THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING. THINK TWICE
BEFORE FOLLOWING. We had three people get caught
in two avalanches yesterday. None of those involved
had any avalanche equipment, Ie. beacon, probe or
shovel. Up to 11 people were in the area at the
time so I believe we were lucky more weren't caught.
One slide ran 800 feet before settling midslope
and the other ran about 600 feet stopping at the
transition with the flats.
MORE PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY GET CAUGHT UNDER A
MODERATE FORECAST THAN ANY OTHER BECAUSE OF THE
HUMAN FACTOR. "WELL MODERATE ISN'T TO BAD" IS A
COMMON THOUGHT FOR MANY WHO ARE LITERALLY... DYING
TO SKI. REMEMBER, PEOPLE DO GET CAUGHT IN MODERATE
AVALANCHE DANGER. Use all your avalanche skills
when venturing into the mountains.
The lip area is nearing the point where it will
need to be closed with the narrow snowband and the
many open and some hidden crevasses. New snow is
also hiding numerous holes here and around the Ravine.
It is best to avoid this area. CLIMB UP WHAT YOU
PLAN ON COMING DOWN TO AVOID ANY SURPRISES. PLEASE
take off your skis to walk 40 yards rather than
ski over fragile alpine vegetation when leaving
areas like Hillmans Highway and the Lower Snowfields.
Many of those little trees are over 100 years old.
BE AWARE OF FALLING ICE! Each year over 1000 tons
of ice forms on the headwall in Tuckerman Ravine
and the gullies of Huntington Ravine. In the spring
it all comes down, often in pieces larger than cars.
Many folks have been injured and even killed by
falling ice. Pay attention to where you are, do
not linger under ice. Have a plan in mind about
what you will do if ice comes down. Station yourself
near a large rock to duck behind in the event of
ice fall. BE ICE SMART!
THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL IS OPEN. Realize the
summer trail still has large steep snow traverses.
A fall here may see you going over a cliff band
so you will need crampons and an ice axe to travel
safely in this area. These snowfields may also be
an excellent sliding surface for avalanche activity
in the event we get more snow. This is always a
possibility during April and May at 5000 ft. MOUNTAINEERING
BOOTS, CRAMPONS, AND AN ICE AXE ARE NEEDED!
THE JOHN SHERBURNE SKI TRAIL IS NOW CLOSED TO ALL
USE. Just because you see snow in back of the rope
it is only continious for the first 200 feet. After
that you are in mud most of the time. This is the
truth. TO PREVENT EROSION TO THE SKI TRAIL PLEASE
USE THE TUCKERMAN RAVINE TRAIL FOR HIKING BOTH UP
AND DOWN FROM PINKHAM NOTCH. There is no skiing
or riding allowed on the Tuckerman ravine trail.
PLEASE REMEMBER:
Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche
danger, this includes wind transported snow.
Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.
For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service
Snow Rangers: AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center
or Hermit Lake Shelters.
This bulletin will be updated on an as needed basis
as conditions change.
Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
USDA Forest Service
White Mountain National Forest
(603) 466-2713 TTY (603) 466-2856